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Prediction for CME (2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-27T23:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27897/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME centered to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source eruption is a filament eruption with liftoff starting around 2023-11-27T23:00Z in SDO AIA 304. The eruption may also be associated with a C5.5 flare from AR 3503 (approx. N15E30). The source signature is also visible as an EUV wave, dimming, and post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 193, opening field lines in SDO AIA 171, and brightening with post-eruptive loops in SDO AIA 94. Post-eruptive loops are visible following a data gap in the NE quadrant in STEREO A EUV 195 imagery. Arrival signature (likely of the combined front of this CME with the 2023-11-27T20:12Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field from 4 nT to 13 nT (and eventually to 15 nT), with Bz component reaching -13 nT . Accompanied by a sharp jump in solar wind speed from under 350 to 450 km/s, in ion density to over 20 particles/cc and in temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-30T23:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-30T21:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Nov 28 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

...A subsequent CME was observed off the SW beginning at 27/0624 UTC.
Modeling of this event suggests a bulk of the material will pass south
of Earth, providing glancing influences on 30 Nov. Another southeasterly
CME was seen in C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at approximately
27/2000 UTC. Initial analysis seems to suggest this event is related to
a C3.8 flare at 27/1837 UTC that originated from an area of enhanced
flux near N20E15. Additionally, a C5.5 flare from Region 3503 (N15E31,
Hrx/alpha) occurred at around 27/2340 UTC. This event coincided with the
eruption of an approximately 13° long filament centered near N27E38,
observed in SUVI 304 imagery lifting off from ~27/2304-2344 UTC. Initial
modeling efforts showed a glancing blow on 01 Dec.

Solar Wind

...Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to diminish on 28 Nov and
continue through the majority of 29 Nov. An enhancement from the 27 Nov
filament eruption will likely materialize late 29 Nov into early 30 Nov
providing glancing influences.

Geospace

...Forecast...
...Active levels are expected to begin by late 29 Nov with the
arrival of any glancing effects from the aforementioned filament
eruption of 27 Nov. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a
chance for an isolated G2 (Moderate) period, 30 Nov as CME effects
continue.

-------------------------

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Nov 29 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels with a M9.8 flare from AR 3500 at
28/1950 UTC, the highest of the period. Region 3500 (S09W02,
Dkc/beta-gamma) continued to be the largest, most complex region on the
disk, and the main culprit of activity producing a M3.4 flare at 28/1932
UTC along with the aforementioned M9 flare...

The CMEs from the 27th, mentioned in previous discussions, were modeled
and determined to have at least somewhat of an Earth-directed component
with arrivals first on 30 Nov, and then early on 01 Dec for the latter
two events. As for 28 Nov, Type II radio sweeps, associated with the
aforementioned M-class flares with estimated speeds of 340 and 854 km/s,
and 10 cm radio bursts (210 sfu and 720 sfu, respectively), were
reported by USAF observatories. Then, at approximately 28/2012 UTC
a full halo CME can ben seen in NASA C2 coronagraph imagery. Analysis
and modeling of this event determined an arrival time of early to midday
on 01 Dec...

...Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate
levels through 30 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux may
experience a slight enhancement on 29 Nov due to the event produced by
AR 3500 on the 28 Nov. Otherwise, background levels are expected to
persist through 01 Dec.

Solar Wind

..Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to diminish on 28 Nov and
continue through the majority of 29 Nov. An enhancement from the 27 Nov
filament eruption will likely materialize late 29 Nov into early 30 Nov
providing glancing influences. An additional, further enhancements are
expected on 01 Dec with the arrival of the two CMEs from late on 27 Nov
and the 28 Nov halo CME.

Geospace

...Forecast...
Primarily quiet conditions are expected early on 29 Nov, with active
levels expected to begin by late 29 Nov following the anticipated
arrival of the early 27 Nov CME. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is
likely, with a chance for an isolated G2 (Moderate) period, on 30 Nov as
CME effects continue. By 01 Dec, G2 (Moderate) conditions are likely
with the anticipated arrival of the late 27 Nov/ 28 Nov CMEs...

-------------------------

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2023 Nov 29 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 29-Dec 01 2023 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 29-Dec 01 2023

             Nov 29       Nov 30       Dec 01
00-03UT       1.00         5.00 (G1)    5.00 (G1)
03-06UT       2.00         5.33 (G1)    5.67 (G2)
06-09UT       2.00         4.67 (G1)    5.00 (G1)
09-12UT       1.33         4.00         4.33     
12-15UT       2.00         3.33         4.00     
15-18UT       2.33         3.00         3.00     
18-21UT       2.67         3.33         3.33     
21-00UT       4.00         3.67         3.67     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater geomagnetic storms are
likely on 30 Nov and 01 Dec due to influences from multiple CMEs.

-------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 73
Issue Time: 2023 Nov 29 1756 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Nov 30:  G1 (Minor)   Dec 01:  G3 (Strong)   Dec 02:  G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Lead Time: 44.30 hour(s)
Difference: 2.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2023-11-29T03:11Z
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